2022 crash simulation
2022 crypto crash simulation: what would it cost your portfolio today?
Key takeaways
- BTC fell 65%, ETH fell 68%, top altcoins fell 80-95% in the 2022 cycle.
- Two specific failures (LUNA, FTX) caused total losses on those positions.
- Concentration in any single name was the single biggest predictor of catastrophic loss.
- The same scenario applied to today's portfolios reveals current crash exposure.
What actually happened in 2022
The 2022 crypto bear market combined a macro tightening cycle with two project-specific collapses. LUNA and UST collapsed in May 2022, wiping out roughly $40 billion in market cap. FTX collapsed in November, taking customer funds and several connected tokens (FTT, SRM) to near zero.
On top of those individual failures, the broader market re-rated. BTC fell from $69k to $15.5k. ETH fell from $4.8k to $880. Most top 50 altcoins fell more than 80% from their cycle highs.
What a 2022 simulation reveals about a current portfolio
Applying 2022 percentages to a current portfolio shows your dollar exposure to a repeat scenario. A portfolio that holds today's equivalent of LUNA-exposure (high yield stablecoin protocol, high single-token concentration) has the same structural risk even if the specific assets are different.
The 12-dimension health score includes a Counterparty Risk dimension that flags exposure to centralized exchanges, single-protocol stablecoins, and other 2022-style failure modes.
How to position for a 2022-repeat scenario
There is no way to eliminate exposure to a market-wide drawdown. There are specific ways to eliminate exposure to single-point failures: avoid keeping large balances on exchanges, limit any single altcoin to a small percentage of the portfolio, and treat algorithmic stablecoins as risk assets rather than cash equivalents.
The stress test quantifies how much a 2022-style scenario would cost your current allocation, and the 12D framework identifies which dimensions need work.
2022 crash applied to a $50K portfolio (60% BTC, 30% ETH, 10% altcoins)
| Scenario | Loss | Remaining |
|---|---|---|
BTC sleeve $30k → -65% | -$19,500 | $10,500 |
ETH sleeve $15k → -68% | -$10,200 | $4,800 |
Altcoin sleeve $19k → -85% average | -$4,250 | $750 |
Total portfolio Combined drawdown | -$33,950 | $16,050 |
Illustrative figures based on a $50,000 portfolio. Your actual numbers will differ, the analysis uses your real holdings and live CoinGecko prices.
See your real numbers, not estimates
Enter your holdings, get a 12-dimension health score, four crash scenarios, and rebalancing targets. One-time $19. Nothing uploaded, nothing stored.
Frequently asked questions
Is a 2022-style crash likely to repeat?
No one knows. The point of a crash simulation is not to predict the next crash but to know what your current portfolio would do if a known historical scenario repeated. If the answer is unacceptable, the time to fix it is now.
What was the biggest cause of permanent loss in 2022?
Single-point failures. Investors heavily exposed to LUNA, FTX, Celsius, or BlockFi suffered total losses on those positions. Investors with diversified holdings on self-custody recovered most or all of their portfolio value in the 2023-24 recovery.
How do I avoid the next LUNA?
Cap any single altcoin at a small percentage of the portfolio (most analyses suggest 2-5% per altcoin), avoid algorithmic stablecoins, and check the Counterparty Risk dimension in your portfolio analysis.
Should I move everything to BTC and ETH only?
Not necessarily. The trade-off is concentration vs. counterparty risk. A diversified portfolio with small altcoin positions usually scores better than a 100% BTC portfolio on the full 12D framework.
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